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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableI later saw the exact same illusion of understanding in business success and the financial markets. History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps Later, upon replaying the wartime events in my memory as I formulated my ideas on the perception of random events, I developed the governing impression that our minds are wonderful explanation machines, capable of making sense out of almost anything, capable of mounting explanations for all manner of phenomena, and generally incapable of accepting the idea of unpredictability. These events were unexplainable, but intelligent people thought they were capable of providing convincing explanations for themБЂ”after the fact. Furthermore, the more intelligent the person, the better sounding the explanation. WhatБЂ™s more worrisome is that all these beliefs and accounts appeared to be logically coherent and devoid of inconsistencies. So I left the place called Lebanon as a teenager, but, since a large number of my relatives and friends remained there, I kept coming back to visit, especially during the hostilities ...» | Код для вставки книги в блог HTML
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