DIPLOMACY OF WAR. THE CASE OF PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT

FIGURE 1: ONE THOUSAND AND ONE DAYS OF HISTORY A turkey before and after Thanksgiving. The history of a process over a thousand days tells you nothing about what is to happen next. This naцЇve projection of the future from the past can be applied to anything. Figure 1 provides the prototypical case of the problem of induction as encountered in real life. You observe a hypothetical variable for one thousand days. It could be anything (with a few mild transformations): book sales, blood pressure, crimes, your personal income, a given stock, the interest on a loan, or Sunday attendance at a specific Greek Orthodox church. You subsequently derive solely from past data a few conclusions concerning the properties of the pattern with projections for the next thousand, even five thousand, days. On the one thousand and first dayБЂ”boom! A big change takes place that is completely unprepared for by the past. Consider the surprise of the Great War. After the Napoleonic conflicts, the world had experienced a period of peace that would lead any observer to believe in the disappearance of severely destructive conflicts ...»