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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableFinancial analysts, herding, and forecasting:see guedj and bouchaud (2006), abarbanell and Bernard (1992), Chen et al. (2002), De Bondt and Thaler (1990), Easterwood and Nutt (1999), Friesen and Weller (2002), Foster (1977), Hong and Kubik (2003), Jacob et al. (1999), Lim (2001), Liu (1998), Maines and Hand (1996), Mendenhall (1991), Mikhail et al. (1997,1999), Zitzewitz (2001), and El-Galfy and Forbes (2005). For a comparison with weather forecasters (unfavorable): Tyszka and Zielonka (2002). Economists and forecasting:tetlock (2005), makridakis and Hibon (2000), Makridakis et al. (1982), Makridakis et al. (1993), Gripaios (1994), Armstrong (1978, 1981); and rebuttals by McNees (1978), Tashman (2000), Blake et al. (1986), Onkal et al. (2003), Gillespie (1979), Baron (2004), Batchelor (1990, 2001), Dominitz and Grether (1999). Lamont (2002) looks for reputational factors: established forecasters get worse as they produce more radical forecasts to get attentionБЂ”consistent with TetlockБЂ™s hedgehog effect. Ahiya and Doi (2001) look for herd behavior in Japan ...» | Код для вставки книги в блог HTML
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